Wednesday 29 February 2012

投资交流站 27/02/2012



我想请问

1. 黄机械机构(Wong,7050,主板工业产品股)这只股可以长期投资吗?
2. 资产有多少?
3. 现金有多少?
4. 负债有多少?

感谢主持人的回答。谢谢!

读者:陈友毅



根据黄机械机构2010年报显示,该机构在2009至2010财年皆蒙受亏损,至于在2011财年,则取得20万4000令吉净利。

在账面上,尽管黄机械机构已转亏为盈,但有关盈利涵盖该机构脱售厂房与设备而取得94万9000令吉的获利。

为此,在排除该一次性获利因素后,黄机械机构在核心业务表现方面,仍蒙受74万5000令吉的亏损。

黄机械机构的股息派发,也呈现逐年下滑的趋势,据其2010年报,从2006和2007财年的2.5仙,到2008至2009财年的1.5仙,以及2010财年的1仙。

根据黄机械机构于12月27日向马交所呈报的最新业绩显示,该机构在2011财年,则无宣布派发任何股息。

截至2011年10月31日,总资产达7034万8000令吉;现金与现金总值为974万3000令吉;银行总贷款为122万1000令吉。

Monday 20 February 2012

一股作气:旧街场白咖啡 布局海外

旧街场白咖啡(OldTown,5201,主板贸服股)在未来的增长推动力,有望来自13亿人口庞大的中国市场。

旧街场白咖啡已于去年11月立足中国第三大城市——广州,并放眼在未来10年,开设172间咖啡店。

同时,旧街场白咖啡如今也积极走向海外市场扩展业务,继进军中国市场以后,在快速消费品(FMCG)业务上,已锁定韩国和越南为下一个目标。

旧街场白咖啡(OldTown,5201,主板贸服股)是马来西亚最大型,而且是国内遥遥领先的南洋咖啡连锁店业者。

截至2011年,旧街场白咖啡在马来西亚、新加坡、印尼和中国的南洋咖啡店总数,已达196间。

在同业(类似南洋咖啡店)业者方面,最为接近的竞争对手则是拥有58间咖啡店的Pappa Rich,乃不及旧街场白咖啡在国内183间的三分之一。

在综合各类连锁咖啡店方面,旧街场白咖啡在国内的连锁网络,仅次于甜品咖啡店业者——Secret Recipe。

旧街场白咖啡的核心业务主要分为:饮食业务(经营连锁咖啡店)和快速消费品(制造与行销白咖啡和其他饮料)两类。

旧街场白咖啡的首间咖啡店,是于2005年在怡保开业,并在短短的7年内,在全马各地快速增长。

其咖啡店如雨后春笋般,在国内每个大城市纷纷开店,似乎在每个角落都可见到旧街场白咖啡的踪影。

随着旧街场白咖啡的成功,许多类似的“南洋咖啡店”业者纷纷出现并争取一份羹,但在整体上,其他业者仍然无法敌过前者的快速增长。

在该领域面临激烈竞争之下,因该公司强烈的品牌效应以及出色的行销策略,成功留住并吸引顾客继续光顾。

放眼2015年300分店

据肯南嘉投资研究在报告,旧街场白咖啡管理层计划积极扩展国内和区域业务,包括设下每年开设20至40间的分店,在2015年的咖啡店总数可达300间的目标。

对于每年开设新店的宏图大计,依据过去几年的记录,自2007年起,旧街场白咖啡每年平均增设30间分店,因此,该计划是有望达标的。

同时,在去年11月,旧街场白咖啡已冲出马新印市场,成功进军中国第三大城市的广州开设首间咖啡店。

广州设咖啡店

这项成就也让旧街场白咖啡在13亿人口的中国市场踏出了第一步,管理层更是放眼在未来10年内,开设172间咖啡店。

而在中国开设咖啡店之前,旧街场白咖啡早已在当地推出旗下的三合一即溶白咖啡,藉此推广和建立其品牌知名度。

侨丰投资研究报告指出,旧街场白咖啡除了会在广州设立咖啡店之外,也会在当地设立食品加工中心。

这些中国的扩展计划看起来相当正面,若是能够在人口庞大的中国取得成功,相信可为旧街场白咖啡带来强稳的增长。

此外,旧街场白咖啡已在中国委任其快速消费品分销商,而且在2011年10月份第一批的货物量,就已超越了该公司在中国和香港于2010年的出口销售。

这项举动(委任快速消费品分销商)将能提高旧街场白咖啡在当地的市占率,以及推动其营业额表现。

旧街场白咖啡快速消费品业务(即即溶白咖啡和其他饮料)出口市场,包括美国、加拿大、台湾、印尼、汶莱、泰国、菲律宾、中国、英国、纽西兰和澳洲。

全年可赚3680万

在业绩表现方面,2011年第三季的营业额和净利分别达7296万7000令吉和886万1000令吉,合计9个月则为2亿166万5000令吉和2850万6000令吉。

根据数据显示,旧街场白咖啡在2010年的净利为3187万2000令吉,相比去年首9个月,净利已相等于2010年的89.4%。

然而,2011年首三季的净利,包括脱售联号公司投资的510万令吉获利,排除该特殊盈利,则为2340万6000令吉。

肯南嘉投资研究预计,旧街场白咖啡在2011全年的净利可达3680万令吉,意味着第四季可取得829万4000令吉的盈利。

依据旧街场白咖啡的股息政策,该公司计划将至少50%的净利作为现金股息,为此,肯南嘉预计2011年的总股息为每股5.6仙(第二季已派发2.5仙)。

周息率4.4%

以此计算以及该股在上周五的闭市价格RM1.28,其周息率为4.4%。

截至去年9月30日,该公司现金与现金等值合计达8176万5000令吉,而贷款额为1985万5000令吉。

对于旧街场白咖啡宣布斥资3670万令吉,在怡保近打县建设新厂房以提高白咖啡的产能,预计不会面对资金问题。

投资风险则是在快速增长之下,能否控制食品与服务素质,确保客户群不会流失。

http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/422943?tid=687

投资交流站 20/2/2012



“在2011财年的首3个季度,常青油棕净利报5760万2000令吉,每股盈利为36.07仙。”

请问是如何计算?此股在十一月1:1分红股后总股数为13亿850万4944股,每股盈利应为4.4仙而以。


在上期的投资交流站提到,“根据常青棕油向马交所报备的数据显示,首3个季度的每股盈利为36.07仙。”

这个数据是直接从该公司于去年年11月21日,向马交所呈交的业绩表现(网址http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/LsvAllByID/482576120041BDAA4825794F00335659?OpenDocument)取得。

然而,在笔者忽略该股曾于去年11月9日(除权日)派发红股计算之下,促使总股数已增加至13亿850万4944股。

因此,每股盈利已稀释化至4.4仙。

为此,假设按年化的每股盈利可达5.87仙,依据该股RM1.06的价格来计算,本益比为18倍。

对于这项疏忽,笔者深感抱歉,并在此说声对不起,也谢谢读者的提出,下次会更为小心处理。

Saturday 18 February 2012

Market Summary: 17/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1553.68   High: 1559.92   Low: 1553.68   Close: 1557.15 (+6.66pts or +0.4%)























Bursa Malaysia

Thursday 16 February 2012

Market Summary: 16/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1558.27   High: 1559.08   Low: 1549.34   Close: 1550.49 (-10.18pts or -0.7%)

Wednesday 15 February 2012

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MALAYSIA IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2011

Growth of the Malaysian economy remained favourable in the fourth quarter

The global economic and financial conditions continued to experience stress in the fourth quarter of 2011, following heightened concerns over the resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis. Growth in the advanced economies was affected by high unemployment, weak housing markets and fiscal issues while growth in Asia was affected by weaker external demand.  Despite the challenging external environment, the Malaysian economy expanded by 5.2% (3Q 11: 5.8%), with growth being underpinned by domestic demand. The favourable domestic demand conditions were supported by both private and public sector spending. On the supply side, the services sector recorded slower growth, while the manufacturing sector grew at a similar pace to the previous quarter, reflecting the weaker external environment amid sustained growth in domestic activity. Other sectors, however, recorded improvements during the quarter, while the agriculture sector continued to record strong growth. For the whole year, the Malaysian economy expanded by 5.1%.

Domestic demand expanded by 10.5% during the quarter (3Q 11: 9.0%), driven by the continued expansion in household and business spending, and public sector expenditure. Private consumption increased by 7.1% (3Q 11: 7.3%), supported by favourable income growth while public consumption expanded by 23.6% (3Q 11: 21.7%) following higher expenditure on emoluments and supplies and services. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 8.5% (3Q 11: 6.1%), supported by continued expansion in capital spending by the private sector and the non-financial public enterprises. The Federal Government development expenditure during the quarter was mostly channelled into the transportation, and trade and industry sectors.

On the supply side, activity in the services sector moderated in the fourth quarter, while the manufacturing sector expanded at a similar pace to the previous quarter. This trend reflected the weaker external environment amid strong performance in domestic-oriented activity. The agriculture sector continued to expand on account of strong production of crude palm oil, while mining output recorded a slower contraction. The construction sector registered higher growth, supported by the implementation of major infrastructure projects.

The headline inflation rate, as measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.2% in the fourth quarter (3Q 11: 3.4%). Inflation in the transport category was lower at 3.2% (3Q 11: 4.3%) reflecting the absence of further adjustments on prices of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG in the quarter. Inflation in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, however, rose to 5.3% during the quarter (3Q 11: 4.8%), mainly due to higher prices in the fish and seafood subcategory.

In the external sector, the current account surplus narrowed in the fourth quarter, but remained large at RM22 billion, equivalent to 10.1% of GNI.  The lower surplus reflected the lower goods surplus, higher trade deficits and larger income outflows. The goods surplus was slightly lower at RM36.9 billion as gross exports expanded at a more moderate pace (9.8%; 3Q 11: 11.4%), while import growth was sustained (7.6%; 3Q 11: 7.4%).

The financial account turned around from a net outflow position to record a small net inflow of RM0.2 billion in the fourth quarter (3Q 11: -RM23.3 billion), due to the significantly smaller net outflow of portfolio funds and higher net inflow of other investments. During the quarter, foreign direct investment recorded a higher net inflow of RM6.5 billion (3Q 11: +RM5.2 billion), supported by higher retained earnings by the multinational companies (MNCs) in Malaysia and higher inflow of equity capital. Direct investments abroad by Malaysian companies increased further to -RM14.4 billion (3Q 11: -RM12.9 billion), reflecting higher outflow of equity capital and larger earnings retained abroad for reinvestment purposes. The overall balance of payments continued to remain strong, recording a surplus of RM6.3 billion in the fourth quarter (3Q 11: RM10.9 billion), as the current account surplus remained high and the financial account registered a net inflow position.

The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM423.4 billion (equivalent to USD133.6 billion) as at 31 December 2011. The reserves level as at 31 December 2011 has taken into account the quarterly adjustment of the foreign exchange revaluation loss, following the strengthening of the ringgit against some major currencies during the quarter. As at 31 January 2012, the reserves position amounted to RM424.8 billion (equivalent to USD134.1 billion), sufficient to finance 9.6 months of retained imports and is 4.1 times the short-term external debt.

Monetary policy remained supportive of economic activity

The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was left unchanged at 3.00% in the fourth quarter of 2011 given the higher downside risks to growth and lower upside risks to inflation. At the prevailing level, the OPR remains supportive of economic activity.

Reflecting the unchanged OPR, the average overnight interbank rate and interbank rates of other maturities were relatively stable. In terms of retail interest rates, the average quoted fixed deposit (FD) rates of commercial banks were stable during the quarter. The average base lending rate (BLR) of commercial banks decreased slightly to 6.53% as at end-December due to the inclusion of a new foreign bank with a lower BLR in December. The weighted average lending rate (ALR) on loans outstanding moderated slightly to 5.66% as at end-December 2011 (end-September 5.70%). The cost of borrowing for businesses and households is still below pre-crisis levels and continues to remain supportive of the economy.

In the fourth quarter, total gross financing raised by the private sector through the banking system and the capital market increased to RM240.6 billion (3Q 11: RM223.9 billion). The higher financing reflected increased loan disbursements during the quarter. On a net basis, banking system loans and PDS outstanding expanded at an annual growth rate of 12.5% as at end-December (3Q 11: 13.4%). The major loan indicators posted strong performances in the fourth quarter.

Net funds raised in the capital market increased to RM19.4 billion during the quarter (3Q 11: RM12.7 billion).  Of this amount, RM15.9 billion was raised by the public sector. There was a significantly lower amount of redemptions by the public sector during the quarter. In the private sector, fund raising activity remained healthy. After adjusting for redemptions, net funds raised by the private sector amounted to RM3.5 billion.

The monetary aggregates continued to grow at a stronger pace during the fourth quarter. M3, or broad money, expanded at a faster annual growth rate of 14.4% as at end-December (end-September 2011: 12.5%).

The global foreign exchange markets remained volatile in the final quarter of the year as uncertainty surrounding the European sovereign debt crisis continued to dampen investor sentiments towards emerging market assets. In general, exchange rate performance was largely news-driven, as markets reacted to developments in Europe. Overall, the ringgit appreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar in the fourth quarter, in line with the regional trend. Against other major currencies, the ringgit appreciated against the euro (5.0%), Japanese yen (1.7%) and the pound sterling (1.6%). Against regional currencies, the ringgit strengthened against the Indonesian rupiah (4.5%), Thai baht (2.3%), Singapore dollar (0.4%) and the Philippine peso (0.4%) but depreciated against the Chinese renminbi (-0.9%) and Korean won (-1.5%). During the period 1 January - 13 February 2012, the ringgit appreciated against the Japanese yen (5.1%), US dollar (5.0%), euro (2.6%) and the pound sterling (2.5%). The ringgit broadly strengthened against regional currencies, appreciating in the range of 1.3% and 4.9%.

Risks to financial stability remained manageable

Financial stability remained intact throughout the fourth quarter despite the persistent uncertainties and challenging external environment. Well-capitalised financial institutions and orderly functioning of the financial markets continued to provide support for financial intermediation activities in the domestic economy.

The banking system exhibited strong performance during the quarter.  Sustained profitability continued to support the capital strength of banks. Liquidity in the banking system remained ample and sufficient to meet the demand for financing and other liquidity obligations. The core capital ratio and risk-weighted capital ratio of the banking system were at 12.9% and 14.9% respectively. Similarly, the insurance sector remained resilient with a strong capital adequacy ratio of 222.5%.

The Financial Sector Blueprint 2011 – 2020 was launched during the quarter, charting the future direction and initiatives to develop the financial sector to best serve the economy and to facilitate the economic growth and transformation over the next ten years. These include initiatives to promote inclusive access to financial services; encourage further development of financial institutions, products and markets that facilitate and drive the development of new domestic sources of growth; and accelerate Malaysia’s regional and international connectivity. 

Growth may moderate amidst more challenging external environment
                                                                                                                              
The global economic recovery continued in the fourth quarter, albeit at a more modest pace. Growth prospects, however, have become increasingly uncertain with the emergence of greater downside risks. In particular, policy uncertainty on the resolution of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe amid fiscal consolidation in the advanced economies could add further strains to the international financial system, thus affecting the prospects for continued global growth.

For the Malaysian economy, the favourable growth in the fourth quarter was underpinned by sustained domestic demand amid weaker external demand. Going forward, the more challenging external environment could present greater downside risks to Malaysia’s growth prospects. Nevertheless, domestic demand is expected to continue to be the key driver of growth, supported primarily by the continued expansion of private sector activity. Public sector expenditure is also expected to lend strong support to the overall growth performance.

Source: BNM

Market Summary: 15/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1566.66   High: 1566.66   Low: 1558.55   Close: 1561.3 (-4.75 or -0.3%)


Tuesday 14 February 2012

Market Summary 14/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1565.25   High: 1566.12   Low: 1560.83   Close: 1566.05 (+3.23pts or +0.2%)

投资交流站 13/2/2012

问:

我想请问您对常青油棕(Rsawit,5113,主板种植股)的看法。这股可否长期持有?怎样衡量这股可以长期持有呢?谢谢!

读者:股市新鲜人

答:

投资种植股,主要需要留意原棕油的价格走势,因种植公司的盈利表现,将受该原产品价格左右。

因此,在原棕油价格备受看好之下,仍然可以持有种植股股项,反之依然,这可从2008年至2009年,当原棕油价格低迷时期,种植公司和股价纷纷受到影响。

回顾常青油棕在2008年8月31日财年,该集团的净利为3900万令吉,之后因原产品价格暴跌,导致2009财年的净利跌至1363万1000令吉。

至于在2009年9月1日至2010年12月31日(财年改至12月31日)的16个月,净利反弹并达5443万8000令吉。

同时,在2011财年的首3个季度,常青油棕在净利表现方面取得1.8倍强劲增长,报5760万2000令吉,已超越2010财年的表现。

根据常青油棕向马交所报备的数据显示,首3个季度的每股盈利为36.07仙。

为此,假设按年化达48.09仙,以周五闭市价RM1.06计算,其本益比只有2.2倍,股值可谓吸引。

至于常青油棕在未来的表现,则将取决于全球食用油与相关发展市场、全球经济走势及对原棕油价格的影响。

Friday 10 February 2012

PROJECT DELIVERY PARTNER AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNGAI BULOH-KAJANG LINE OF THE KLANG VALLEY MASS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT

Introduction

Gamuda Berhad (“Gamuda” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that its jointly-controlled entity, MMC Gamuda KVMRT (PDP) Sdn Bhd (the “PDP”), has on 10 February 2012 executed the Project Delivery Partner Agreement (“PDP Agreement”) with Mass Rapid Transit Corporation Sdn Bhd (the “Owner”) in respect of the implementation of the project known as the Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit Project-Sungai Buloh-Kajang line (the “Project”).

Parties to the PDP Agreement

The Owner
The Owner is a company incorporated in Malaysia with an authorised capital of RM50,000,000.00 divided into 50,000,000 ordinary shares, of which 10,000,002 are fully paid-up. All of the issued shares are owned by the Minister of Finance, Incorporated.

The PDP
The PDP is a company incorporated in Malaysia with an authorised capital of RM10,000,000.00  divided into 10,000,000 fully paid-up ordinary shares. All of the issued shares of the PDP are held in equal proportion by MMC Corporation Berhad and Gamuda.

The salient terms of the PDP Agreement

PDP’s responsibilities
The PDP shall be responsible for delivering to the Owner the Project as a fully functional and operating railway system within the agreed target cost and completion date.

As the project delivery partner, the PDP is responsible for the design of the Railway in accordance with the Owner’s Requirements and the approved Railway scheme.

To ensure delivery within the agreed target cost and completion date, the PDP is fully responsible for the due performance by all the contractors who are awarded by the Owner works packages comprised in the Project following competitive bidding exercises called by the Owner.

Once the awards of the works packages have been made by the Owner, instead of having to look to all 90 contractors, the Owner has only to look to the PDP for accountability in the Project delivery. In this respect, it shall be the PDP’s responsibility to manage, deal with, co-ordinate, supervise and interface all the contractors. In addition, the PDP is also responsible as the system integrator for the entire Project.

In the event that any of the contractors shall fail or default in its performance of the works, the PDP has the obligation to step in and self deliver the remaining works.

It is a term in all the works contracts with the contractors that in consideration of the PDP having the authority to manage, deal with, co-ordinate, supervise and interface the contractors, any disputes or claims (including for payments of works done) which the contractor may have arising from their respective works contract shall only be brought against the PDP and not the Owner. Notwithstanding such provision in the works contracts, in the event any of the contractors were to make any claims or take any proceedings against the Owner under the works contract, the PDP shall indemnify the Owner against such claims or proceedings.

Owner’s responsibilities
The main responsibilities of the Owner under the PDP Agreement are:
(a) to obtain the necessary approval for the Railway Scheme in respect of this Project;
(b) to obtain the EIA approval in respect of this Project;
(c) to deliver site possession to the PDP (in order for the PDP to deliver the same to the contractors) in accordance with the agreed schedule in the PDP Agreement; and
(d) to make payments for the works done by the contractors (in order for the PDP to make onwards payment to the contractors) in accordance with the terms of the PDP Agreement.

PDP is not allowed to tender for any of the Works
Save and except for the underground works package, the PDP is not allowed to participate in any of the tender for the works comprised in the Project.
 
Target Cost and Completion Date
The agreed target costs is the aggregate of all the awarded  works packages, the amount of contingency allowed and the amount of reimbursables incurred by the PDP in performing its services.

The allowed contingency is agreed at 15% of the aggregate of the awarded works packages. Both the Owner and the PDP are allowed to utilize the contingency.

The reimbursables include the PDP’s overheads, fees for engineering consultancy, quantity surveyors and system integration works and fees for site investigations and topographical survey. The amount of the reimbursables is fixed at RM2.85 Billion.

The target completion date for the entire Project is 31 July 2017.

In consideration of the PDP undertaking the services of a project delivery partner in accordance with the terms of the PDP Agreement and provided that the PDP successfully delivers to the Owner the Project within the agreed target cost, it shall be paid a fee which is equivalent to 6% (“Fee”) of the aggregate of all the awarded works contracts (excluding the value of the underground works package if the PDP wins the Swiss Challenge and is awarded the said package).

If the Project exceeds the agreed target cost, the PDP shall be liable for the cost over-run by the reduction of the Fee based on an agreed formula in the PDP Agreement.

Any liabilities arising from claims brought by or disputes with Contractors shall be fully borne by the PDP after the contingency has been exceeded and the PDP has no recourse to the Owner in respect of such excess. 

In the event that the PDP fails to complete the Project by the agreed completion date, the PDP is liable to pay to the Owner agreed liquidated damages of RM500,000.00 per day.

Swiss Challenge
In acknowledgement of the PDP as the original proponent of the Project, the Owner has agreed to grant to the PDP (through its nominated company which shall have the same shareholding as the PDP) a right of Swiss Challenge to match the best evaluated tender bid in respect of the underground works package.

In the event that the PDP’s nominated company is awarded the underground works package, the management and supervision of the underground works package shall be undertaken by the Owner themselves and not the PDP. Nevertheless, the PDP shall still be responsible for the overall delivery of the Project.

In the event that the PDP’s nominated company is not awarded the underground works package, the successful Contractor shall be dealt with in the same manner as all other works contractors for which the PDP shall be responsible for.

Source of Funds
Gamuda shall fund its share in the PDP through internally generated funds and bank borrowings.

Financial Effects

Share Capital and Substantial Shareholders’ shareholdings
The Project will not have any effect on the share capital and substantial shareholders’ shareholdings of Gamuda.

Earnings
The Project is not expected to have any significant effect on the earnings of the Gamuda Group for the financial year ending 31 July 2012. However, it is expected to contribute positively to the future earnings of the Gamuda Group.

Net Tangible Assets ("NTA")
The Project is not expected to have any significant impact on the NTA of the Gamuda Group for the financial year ending 31 July 2012.

Approval(s) Required
The execution of the PDP Agreement is not subject to the approval of the shareholders of Gamuda or any government authorities.

Directors' and Major Shareholders' Interests
None of the Directors, major shareholders or persons connected to them has any interest, direct or indirect, in the Project.

Statement by the Board of Directors
The Directors of the Company are of the opinion that the acceptance of the award of the Project is in the best interest of the Company.

Market Summary: 10/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1562.72   High: 1564.66   Low: 1559.31   Close 1561.66 (-3.66pts or -0.2%)

Thursday 9 February 2012

Market Summary: 9/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1555.15   High: 1565.32   Low: 1551.19   Close: 1565.32 (+12.14pts or +0.8%)

Wednesday 8 February 2012

Market Summary: 8/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1542.27   High: 1554.06   Low: 1542.27   Close: 1553.18 (+14.41 or +0.9%)

Tuesday 7 February 2012

一股作气:捷运隧道工程 金务大有望夺标

总值预计达360亿令吉的大吉隆坡捷运(KVMRT)工程,是有国有史以来最大型的基建工程,各工程项目的发放,将为建筑领域注入强心剂。

随着捷运公司(MRT Corp)在近期已发放工程,捷运主题股的前景更是倍受看好,有望成为今年的热门投资股。

在捷运工程当中,总值介于70亿至80亿令吉的隧道项目,在符合资格的竞标者争取出线之际,不少券商研究分析皆认为,金务大(Gamuda,5398,主板建筑股)有望脱颖而出。

一旦金务大获颁捷运隧道工程,该公司的订单将轻而易举的翻倍,而另一项重大的催化剂,也包括金马士—新山的双线铁路工程。

在捷运各工程项目发放之前,金务大通过其联营公司——马矿业—金务大(MMC-Gamuda),已受委为该基建工程的项目交付合作伙伴(PDP)。

而在上个月,捷运公司(MRT Corp)宣颁两项总值17亿3969万令吉的工程,给予IJM(IJM,3336,主板建筑股)和阿末查基(AZRB,7078,主板建筑股)。

IJM获颁双溪毛糯—加影干线捷运V5配套工程的主要承包商,负责Maluri站正门至凤凰广场站的高架桥导轨及其他相关工程,总值9亿7478万令吉。

至于阿末查基则担任V6配套的主要承包商,地点从凤凰广场开始至敦胡申翁站,总值7亿6490万7527.28令吉。

随着这两项的工程发放,预计在近期内将会陆续颁发其他项目工程,捷运主题股也因此蠢蠢欲动。

在捷运隧道方面,已有5个竞标者符合资格,只有马矿业—金务大属于纯本地公司,而其余4家皆是国际承包商或与本地业者携手竞标参与。

不少券商研究分析认为,在隧道工程已有超过10年经验的金务大,可打败其他竞标者,夺得捷运隧道工程。

在本地隧道工程方面,金务大所涉及的隧道工程,包括本查拉连贯公路(PENCHALA LINK),精明防洪隧道(SMART)以及双轨铁道。

至于海外方面,包括台湾高雄捷运,如今也参与卡达尔世界杯的多哈地铁工程(Doha Metro Project)。

捷运隧道工程项目预计将在今年3月或4月颁发,分析员称,一旦金务大在捷运隧道工程竞标成功出线,其订单将轻而易举的翻倍,以及提高未来10年的盈利可见度。

订单上看120亿

此外,根据一份报告指出,金务大管理层披露,该公司已经获得价值1亿令吉的初步工程。

近期,金务大的催化剂除了捷运隧道工程以外,也包括金马士—新山的双线铁路工程,该公司已受到中国铁建股份有限公司(CRCC)邀请作为本地伙伴,合力竞标该工程。

然而,据报告称,金马士—新山的双线铁路工程还在初步/洽谈阶段中,招标可能在4月进行。

截至目前,金务大的订单大约为40亿令吉左右,若该公司获得该工程项目,预计可带来潜能30亿至40亿令吉的额外订单。

包括捷运隧道工程在内(以联营公司持有50%股权计算),金务大的订单可轻易的劲扬至大约120亿令吉。

首季盈利赚幅11.2% 创新高

金务大的3大核心业务为工程与建筑、产业发展、基建特许经营权,海外业务包括巴林(锡特拉长堤大桥)、卡达尔(多哈新国际机场和杜罕高速公路)、印度(Panagarh-Palsit和Durgapur高速大道)、寮国(Nam Theun 1)、越南(金务大城和Celadon城镇)和台湾(高雄捷运)。

至于在国内业务方面,包括怡保—巴当勿剎(Ipoh-Padang Besar)双轨铁路、7个产业项目、雪兰莪河水坝和水源供应。

此外,金务大也持有莎阿南大道控股30%股权和环城公路(LITRAK,6645,主要板基建)46%股权,因此享有莎阿南大道、白蒲大道和西部疏散大道的收益。

金务大在近年来净利已呈增长趋势,从2009财年1亿9368万9000令吉,增至2010财年3亿2291万8000令吉和2011财年4亿2541万1000令吉。

然而,2009至2011财年的营业额则分别达27亿2730万2000令吉、24亿5514万3000令吉和26亿7320万8000令吉。

最新一季方面,金务大在2012财年首季,营业额微涨1.23%至6亿4199万4000令吉,但净利却取得49.46%强劲增长,报1亿3231万9000令吉。

值得一提的是,该公司首季的业绩表现,接近建筑领域税前盈利赚幅的历史高水平,达到11.2%的高赚幅。

截至去年10月杪,金务大总贷款达2兆令吉,现金与银行存款则近1.1兆令吉。

展望2012财年,金务大预测,在持续进行中的兴建工程、强劲的产业销量以及水务与收费大道特许经营权稳定的营收之下,可在本财年业绩表现可更强稳。

至于近期最大风险,是市场预计金务大将是捷运隧道工程大赢家之下,一旦失意该合约,或将导致该股股价下挫。

http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/419302?tid=702

投资交流站 7/2/2012

问:

持有凭单,若期限到,可以以什么方法转换或计算?

如果以科恩马-CJ(KNM-CJ,7164-CJ,主板工业产品股)来计算,期限落在2012年3月28日,持有价为0.5仙, 共50,000单位。

读者:Andy Cheah

答:

根据科恩马-CJ资料显示,该凭单将以4单位兑换1股,行使价/结算价为RM1.93。

科恩马-CJ发行商将在期限当天,以该股过去5个交易日的平均闭市价格作为参阅价,自动结算和计算,若股价高于结算价,在扣除行使权相关费用后,发行商将以现金的方式退还予持有者。

反之,若结算价高于股价,那么,所持有的凭单可谓已是“废纸”,没有任何的价值。

当然,凭单持有者可在期限之前,从市场公开脱售。

如果依据KNM在2月2日闭市价RM1.14以及结算价格来看,持有者若无法在期限前脱售,持有的凭单已无价值。

然而,如果在期限当天,股价高于结算价,那么,持有者可获回退的现金计算方式如下:

【凭单单位 × [(闭市价 – 结算价)÷ 行使比率 ] – 行使权相关费用】

行使权相关费用计算方法

= 0.3% x [(闭市价 – 结算价)÷ 行使比率 ] x 凭单单位

比如说,该股在3月28日的闭市价格假设为RM2.20

= 50,000 x [(2.20 – 1.93)/4] – [0.3% x (2.20 – 1.930) x 50,000]

= 50,000 x 0.0675 – 40.5

= RM3,334.50

至于持有者的获利,则需再纳入凭单购买的成本和相关交易费在内。

Friday 3 February 2012

Market Summary: 3/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1537.59   High: 1541.31   Low: 1526.03   Close: 1538.77 (+1.68pts or +0.1%)

Thursday 2 February 2012

Market Summay: 2/2/2012

FBM KLCI
Open: 1526.61   High: 1540.89   Low: 1526.57   Close: 1537.09 (+15.8pts or +1%)

Wednesday 1 February 2012

Monthly FBM KLCI & Index Members Closing Data: January 2012

Monthly FBM KLCI & Index Members Closing Data.


31 Jan 2012
52W High
52W Low
FBM KLCI
1521.29
1597.08
1310.53
AIRASIA**
3.55
4.20
2.35
AMMB
5.85
6.75
5.30
ARMADA**
3.95
4.33
3.24
AXIATA
4.67
5.22
4.43
BAT
49.40
50.20
42.70
CIMB
6.91
9.01
6.56
DIGI
3.96
35.40*
3.44
GENM
4.04
4.04
3.01
GENTING
11.12
11.78
8.37
HLBANK
11.36
13.80
9.14
HLFG
11.88
13.74
8.46
IOICORP
5.40
5.90
3.75
KLK
25.70
26.76
15.30
MAXIS
5.71
5.75
5.16
MAYBANK
8.20
9.26
7.35
MHB
5.36
8.82
5.00
MMCCORP
2.80
2.98
2.20
PBBANK
13.54
13.62
11.68
PCHEM
6.67
7.61
5.23
PETDAG
18.00
18.90
12.02
PETGAS
15.68
15.68
11.00
PPB
16.94
18.00
15.16
RHBCAP
7.12
10.40
6.53
SIME
9.09
9.40
7.00
TENAGA
6.00
7.21
4.89
TM
4.80
5.09
3.70
UEMLAND**
2.32
3.07
1.54
UMW
6.91
9.00
6.14
YTL
1.50
8.18
1.21
YTLPOWR
1.85
2.45
1.63



Effective from 13 December 2011, UEM Land has been replaced PLUS Expressways
in the FBMKLCI. And from 19 December 2011 onwards, AirAsia and Bumi Armada replaced Gamuda and MISC.